EIU gives scary predictions about Nigeria in the next 5 years

EIU gives scary predictions about Nigeria in the next 5 years

- The EIU projects that the future of Nigeria in the next five years might be full of instability

- The group suggested President Buhari might be forced out of office

- It said this instability might affect the economy

The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that President Muhammadu Buhari will be forced out of office before 2019 while violent unrest and instability will rock the country in the next five years.

Guardian reports that the business unit arm of the United Kingdom-based Economist Group which provides advisory services through research and analysis indicated that Nigeria will face its biggest challenge to constitutional rule in its democratic period since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

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The group said the risk was heightened by the uncertainty in the country over President Buhari’s trip to the UK for medical treatment.

The unit stated: "We view it likely that Mr. Buhari will be forced to leave office before the official end of his term in 2019. He will be replaced by his deputy, Yemi Osinbajo, to serve the remainder of the term as stipulated in the constitution.

"Policy reform will be slow as efforts to introduce market-oriented reforms and diversify the economy away from oil come up against vested interests, ideological opposition and bureaucratic inefficiency.

“Real GDP growth would ebb to recover from the recession of 2016, given an ongoing period of historically low oil prices and the weak policy response which will sap confidence in the economy more generally.”

Bayo Rotimi who is an economist and an investment banker however said the EIU tended to be pessimistic in its projection.

"I understand the anxiety around the political situation, movement in oil prices. These are things that we are aware of. If there are problems in those areas, then the nation's economy may be adversely affected."

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"The EIU tends to be pessimistic. I do not agree with their position on the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). As always, everything is a function of implementation," he said.

Muda Yusuf who is the director-general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry acknowledged the concern but said the government was working towards achieving genuine growth and stability.

Meanwhile, the federal government said Nigeria would be out of recession before the end of December this year.

The minister of Budget and National Planning, Sen. Udo Udoma disclosed this on Wednesday evening July 5 when he made a presentation to the APC National Working Committee (NWC) at the Party’s National Secretariat on the federal government’s 2017-2020 ERGP.

NAIJ.com gathered that though the meeting was held behind closed doors, spokesman of the party, Bolaji Abdullahi in a statement said based on the ongoing implementation of the 2017-2020 Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) by the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration, “the country’s economy will come out of recession in 2017”.

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