The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) made some predictions about the things that could have happened in Nigeria shortly after the Nigerian Civil War. Some analysis were made on the issue in order to ascertain the short and long term movement of the secession on the country.
Some declassified files were recovered from the archive of the CIA; although these files have been approved for release, the information contained in them are mind boggling as they seem to touch different aspects of the nation's welfare.
These things were made known in the declassified CIA files approved for release. Biafra was one of the subjects assessed and some predictions were made about the likely things that may happen with the group and the nation as a whole.
Nigeria was undergoing a civil war and there were no signs of an early end to the fight when the assessment was made 18 months into the war. The secession of the eastern part of the country made the war begin.
1. The Biafrans were headlock with the government
The biafrans were convinced that the federal Nigerian authorities had the intention of exterminating them as a tribe. They were willing to die of hunger rather than renounce their secession.
2. Refugee problem
The war led to a serious refugee problem for the Baifrans. The federal troops moved into the secessionist territory forcing many Igbos to retreat.
The CIA document revealed that starvation was a major problem for the Biafra and they purported that it would get worse if relief aid do not get to them then.
3. Several international relief agencies aided Biafra
The impression many people have about the Nigerian civil is a little different. Most times, the Biafrans were made to look like they were in the battle alone.
They had the support of the International Committee of the Red Cross and several religious organizations. The Biafra had no seaport and all their supplies had to be lifted into its one airstrip.
4. Fear of federal forces
The Uk and US felt it would be good to send relief to the Biafrans as at the time of the war over ground routes but the Igbos feared that the same routes might be used by the federal troops.
The federal authorities are suspicious that the agencies flying to the relief to the Biafrans may also be transporting arms and have therefore not given wholehearted support to the present relief effort.
5. Skepticism of the Nigerian government
The Nigerian government was skeptical of the role of the US in aiding the refugees. The USSR had been building a reputation of Nigeria’s friend in need by supplying military assistance to the Nigerians.
Nigerians have strong ties with the West, particularly the UK. They were unwilling to break the ties and establish a closer bond with the Soviet Union.
6. Nigeria’s suspicion of US
The Biafrans received support from the French who have been supplying them arms. The Biafra also received some military support from four African countries that aligned with them.
With this, Nigerians were suspicious of the US while the Soviets were given more opportunities to supply arms to the Nigerians and try to increase USSR presence and their influence there.