Declassified CIA files revealed possible political development in Nigeria

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) made some predictions about the things that could happen in Nigeria shortly after the country gained independence. These things were made known in the declassified CIA files approved for release.

One of the files was named the 'Probable Developments in the Federation of Nigeria' and it covered political outlook, economic prospects and international orientation.

The information contained in the file was submitted by the director of central intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on the January 24, 1961.

Although the statement problem was to estimate the probable developments in the federation of Nigeria in two years, the predictions made seem to be true with the present happenings in the country.

As at the time the country gained independence, there were prospects that it will develop into a moderate and influential African state.

Find below some of the predictions made in the declassified CIA files bout Nigeria:

1. The Federal Government is controlled by a coalition

Nigeria's population is made up of a wide diversity of ethnic groups with regions controlled by major tribal groups and its attendant political party.

The CIA noted this while making the prediction that strains will be put on the federal system. The two southern regions will press for a stronger central government and more radical solutions to the internal problems.

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2. Nigeria's economy is predominantly led by agriculture

The CIA files declassified and released stated that Nigeria's economy is predominantly led by agriculture.

It also added that the country's foreign exchange ratings come from agricultural products with prices that are subjected to fluctuations. These fluctuations are beyond the country's control.

The declassified CIA files also predicted that Nigeria will look up to the UK and the west for assistance due to the nation's scarce domestic capital.

3. The position of leadership sought by the nation

The information gotten from the CIA files revealed that the country would seek a position of leadership in Africa. The nation being called the giant of Africa is a proof of this.

While the country would try to moderating role between the differing African factions, it will also find itself being aligned with the conservative states like Ghana and Guinea.

The nation according to the prediction is most likely to find itself in agreement with Afro-Asian states in terms of colonialism.

4. US relationship with Nigeria will be plagued

With the growing sense of independence, the country will experience reduced political influence from Britain.

The relationship between the US and Nigeria will suffer because of the country's past affiliation with the European colonial powers.

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5. The establishment of diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union

The CIA files predicted that Nigeria may establish diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union and some European satellites during in the coming years.

This relationship may give them opportunities to increase their influence at the expense of the West.

Western influence will be more affected by Western policies and actions on specific African issues than by Bloc initiatives within Nigeria.

Source: Legit.ng